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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.